Why a 70% Hit Rate Doesn't Mean a 70% Chance of Winning
Historical frequency and the probability of the next game are different things. Here's why.
History is not a forecast
A 70% L10 hit rate means the prop hit in seven of ten past qualifying games. It describes those games; it does not prove a 70% probability for the next one.
The next matchup is different
Opponent quality, venue, injuries, playing time, lineup position, weather and many other conditions can change from game to game.
Price matters too
Even a strong trend is not automatically good value. Sportsbook odds imply a break-even probability, so the price offered is part of evaluating any wager.
Use percentages as a filter
High or low historical hit rates are useful for narrowing a large player pool into a smaller research list. They are a starting point, not a guarantee.
Remember: HitRateProp summarizes historical performance. Historical results do not guarantee future outcomes.